By Alfred Peza
Agreement between Rama and Basha are expected to generate their first effects in the Albanian political spectrum, on the new election day which was just decreed by President Nishani. The product of the vote of the Albanian people will certainly have an impact not only in the next four years of the government term in office and the new opposition, but beyond that. This makes a “de facto” division of this political era of the country to the period before and after this agreement.
First of all, the political arena is expected to be configured with new alliances, leaderships and protagonists. Another interesting thing that is expected to happen is the removal of the old players, who have already started to leave. Meanwhile, the rest which is still expected to be in Parliament, is expected to shift more to the side and lose the importance that it has had up until today. This offers a real chance for Albania and Albanians to start a new era after 25 June. This new day started at the moment when Basha, and not Berisha, was for the first time in these 27 years, the first violin of the right wing. And this journey will continue irreversibly when the historical leader of the DP no longer has a determining role in the next political decision making in Albania. It’s not important whether the good Doctor will or will not be in the new Parliament, as long as we’re sure that the leader of DP, Lulzim Basha will not be absent in it as he was in the past 4 years.
Secondly, one of the first biggest effects that the agreement between the leaders of the majority and the opposition has produced is the possibility for the Albanian political arena to become bipolar again. This will take us back to the scene that used to dominate several years ago with two important poles, part of the political gravity: SP and DP. One of them on the left and the other one on the right. One in majority and the other one in opposition. After the elections, the role and the representation of other small parties will become relative, because the lack of a coalition between the SP and SMI and other small left wing parties and the fact that the leaders of the small right wing parties will be part of the DP candidate lists, makes the political arena even more polarized. And the credit for this doesn’t go to the SP or DP, but the specific formula of the Albanian Electoral Code, which Rama and Basha had no reason not to exploit in the circumstances that were created.
Thirdly, political bipolarity also activated an alliance between Meta and Berisha, which up until yesterday was “sleepy”. They made sure that at the time when Rama and Basha were finalizing their agreement, their meeting was not only made public, but it also conveyed a “new” alliance between them. This also polarized the political arena in the alliance between its main political players. This way, the power that Berisha seemed to lose as a result of the direct negotiation of the acting Prime Minister with the leader of the opposition, compensated it by restarting a new line of direct relations with the President elect. This line was sealed by no. 2 of SMI, Monika Kryemadhi, when she declared that she had put a block on the communication with Rama and praised Berisha as a leader who knows how to finalize agreements.
Fourthly, if the SP has openly expressed its ambition to win 71 seats in Parliament to govern alone during the second mandate, the biggest challenge relates to SMI. This is a party which in the past eight years expanded its role and impact on the voters and Albanian politics, by playing the role of kingmaker in Berisha’s second term in office and in Rama’s first term in office. In the recent weeks, many of the MPs and main leaders of this force, have expressed their ambition to come out first in the elections. Besides the post of the President, they also articulated the rather courageous thesis that time has come for Albania to be governed by this party. The name of the new leader of this party, Petrit Vasili started to be mentioned for the post of the next Prime Minister of the country. We need to wait the day after the elections to see how close to its dream this political force went by daring to challenge the system and include in the candidate lists young men and women without experience.
Fifthly, Monday 26 June we will see if Parliament will again have people like Ben Blushi, Mimoza Hafizi, Eduard Ndocaj, Gazmend Oketa, Kreshnik Spahiu, Gjergj Bojaxhi, etc, in it, who are running under the logos of their parties. Up until the moment that the agreement was reached, when it seemed that for the first time in the past 27 years we would head to elections without the opposition, their chances to stay in the game were greater than ever, because in elections where half of the scene is empty, there are be enormous possibilities for new players who would want to be part of it. The new agreement has made it very difficult for small parties to obtain a spot in the new Parliament.
Lastly, the “millenials” who have braced for a new role in this reconfiguration which is expected to happen with the Albanian political arena after June 25. All of those young people who have managed to secure a safe spot in the lists of the main parties as candidates for MPs and who may have already secured their mandate in the new Parliament which is expected to start in September. The millenials are all of those who were born at the turn of the century and who now, 17 years later, grew up and were educated by becoming a driving force within political parties and managing to receive a mandate of representation as MPs. This is expected to give birth to the group of the next protagonists of our political arena, the future managers of the country and the future leadership o our main political parties.
The agreement reached between Rama and Basha is expected to extend its effects after the elections, because both leaders are committed to continue cooperation in the new Parliament for a number of new reforms, by not changing the current Electoral Code. This means that even in the future, political bipolarity will be guaranteed for as long as the formula of the law discourages the creation of new political poles. But we need to wait and see the democratic quality that this new architecture will bring. One thing is sure: After 25 June, Albania will be different to the one today. Not only in Parliament, but also outside of it.
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Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy
