By Eduard Zaloshnja
After the 2013 elections, I published in a national TV network the projection of the parliamentary seats based on the votes that the political parties had received in the previous general elections. From that projection, the left wing coalition had 73 certain seats, while 10 seats were uncertain. After those elections, thanks to the ability of SMI to attract right wing votes, all ten of those uncertain seats were won by the left wing. (A true statistical surprise would be an extra seat in Kukes, in which the left could have won if it had only received another 34 votes in that district).
Even in these year’s elections, although political parties have not made big coalitions (as it happened four years ago), it seems that only 10 parliamentary seats are at stake–we can say that the 130 other ones have been predetermined by the electoral history of parliamentary elections.
So, in the small districts of Kukes and Gjirokastra, the history of parliamentary elections indicates that the result is practically predetermined. In Kukes, a constituency which will only have three seats this year, is expected to have an outcome of 2-1 in favor of the DP. Meanwhile, Gjirokaster is expected to produce this result 3-1-1 (SP-DP-SMI). A different result in one of the small districts would be a true and extraordinary statistical surprise.
Meanwhile, in the other 10 districts, the last seat of every constituency is up for grabs between different political parties in the race.
So, in Tirana, the 34th seat will very likely be up for grabs between the SP, DP, SMI, PJIU and LIBRA. In Fier, SP, DP and SMI will fight over the 16th seat. In Elbasan, SP, DP and SMI will fight over the 14th seat. In Korca, the SP, DP and SMI will much likely fight over the 11th seat.
And so on…
But what is the distribution of the 130 almost certain seats predetermined by the result of previous parliamentary elections? The following table will attempt to answer this question.
Table. 1 The distribution of 130 seats predetermined by the history of parliamentary elections
Party Seats
SP 65
DP 52
SMI 10
PJIU 2
SDP 1
The analysis above tells us that in order to secure the magic number of 71 seats, the party on top of the table (SP), must win 6 out of 10 seats which are not certain. And it may achieve this only if it attracts the majority of voters who have voted for it in the past or who have voted one of the small ally parties, while the rivals leak votes, however small these leaks are.
On the other hand, a leak of left wing votes toward parties competing with it (new ones or old ones) may result destructive in achieving the magic number 71.
Note: The terms “left wing” and “right wing” have been used in this article based on their popular definition in Albania. In the political philosophy, these terms assume a different meaning.
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Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy.
