All the scenarios of 25 June!

All the scenarios of 25 June!
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.afp.al

By Alfred Peza

Based on the way this election campaign is being held, different professional opinion polls, which have been made or haven’t been made public, based on the positioning of political parties outside past coalitions and the daily performance of political leaders in meetings all over Albania and the media, the June 25 outcome is expected to generate a result which deserves to be analyzed as of now. This will dictate the way the winning party of this process will behave, act and decide.  But this will also dictate the needs of the next Prime Minister to have a more solid majority, in spite of the ups and downs that the power in the next four years will bring. Let us go through all the possibilities, analyzing not only the indicators, facts and the logic that takes us on this conclusion, but also the probability for it to happen.

SCENARIO 1

1-The Socialist Party will form a government on its own with Edi Rama as Prime Minister! Based on the opinion polls and the analysis of the projections for the results in all constituencies of the country, in these elections, the Socialist Party may obtain from 69 to 75 seats in the new Parliament that will come out. The causes that may lead to such result are numerous, but the main causes relate to the support for the reforms that were made during the first term in office, especially the reform in justice and the starting procedures for the vetting of 800 judges and prosecutors throughout the country. A reform, which up until yesterday was not imaginable. But work has started today in order to build a new system of justice, with people who meet strict criteria in every aspect, by creating the impression that there’s finally political will and a political force able to build a modern and functional state in Albania. Perhaps, within a year, this will enable the country to make another step forward before becoming a full member of the European Union. The probability for this scenario to take place is 50%.

SCENARIO 2

2- The Socialist Party wins 71 seats, but doesn’t form a government with Edi Rama as Prime Minister on its own. It enters a post election coalition with new allies. This is a likely option, given that the socialist leader himself has articulated this thesis, saying that we want Albanians to trust us with the “steering wheel of the new government” in order not to “hold anyone on our lap” and in order to push the economy forward, to create more jobs and to offer more wellbeing for the people. If this scenario takes place, the SP is highly likely to forge a coalition with small parliamentary parties, which, along with the socialists, may form a majority which guarantees support for the new reforms in Parliament, without the fear that the government may be overthrown. This scenario rules out any post election coalition with DP or SMI. On the other hand, according to the agreement reached on 18 May between Rama and Basha, the DP will offer the votes of its parliamentary group in opposition for the election reform, the administration, integration, etc. This scenario too his highly probable.

SCENARIO 3

3- The Socialist Party wins 70 seats on its own (-1,2 seats), short of a very few votes which would enable it to create a government on its own with Edi Rama as Prime Minister. Even in this case, the SP will be obliged to forge an alliance with small parliamentary parties to secure the necessary votes for the approval of the program and new governing team in the new Parliament in September. This scenario too rules out the possibility of an alliance with DP and SMI. The party or the parties which would be part of this new majority, would weaken the power of the Prime Minister and would not allow him to have the strong government that he has wished for, because the votes that would enable the majority would control more power than the numbers in Parliament. This would be history repeated in the past 8 years when the Democratic Party had to enter an alliance with the Socialist Movement for Integration from 2009 until 2013 and when the Socialist Party entered a coalition with the Socialist Movement for Integration and then with the Party for Justice, Integration and Unity from 2013 until 2017. The probability for this scenario to occur is slimmer than the probability for the first two scenarios, nonetheless, it may occur, because credible polls indicate that in many constituencies, socialists are only a few votes short from securing  the seats that they have targeted and win on their own. This means that everything will be decided these final days and hours before the campaign, before the ballot boxes are opened on Sunday.

SCENARIO 4

4.- Another scenario is that of the victory of the Socialist Party with a similar number of seats that it obtained four years ago. This would force the Prime Minister to demand alliances with larger parties than the ones that can secure more than one or two seats. The probability for this scenario to occur is very low, but this would create a very large majority. On one side, this would be a good thing because it would push forward any reform. But on the other hand, the quality of the government would be seriously jeopardized and above all, this would be asphyxiating for the opposition and for the quality of democracy, which is still fragile in Albania. This alliance could create for the first time a government between SP and DP and in any circumstances, it would rule out the Socialist Movement for Integration.

SCENARIO 5

5.- The other scenario which very few within the SP would desire is a combination of a result which would condemn this party and Edi Rama to sit down and forge an alliance with a conglomerate of small parties, with the only aim of avoiding a coalition between DP and SMI. This would make the government even more fragile and the level of risk that the government would fall would be constantly high. The probability for this to happen is very small.

SCENARIO 6

6.- The last scenario which no left wing supporter, regardless the party that he will vote on June 25, is an outcome that would oblige Edi Rama to call Petrit Vasili once the result of the election is announced. However, this would help relax relations between the Prime Minister and the new President of the country, by creating the necessary climate for a harmonious relation between the head of the state and the head of the government after many years. Chances for this to happen are also small.

In spite of the probability, all scenarios are at stake and must be taken into account, at least during an analysis such as this one, for as long as everything can happen in an election process, where Albanians have voted in a very intelligent way. One thing is clear now. Albanians are showing more than ever that they want to move away from the past and through deep reforms, they want to embrace a new reality as soon as possible. This explains each of the scenarios above.

The republication of this article is strictly forbidden without a written permission from the Albanian Free Press newsroom

Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy.

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