Opinion polls and the optimism of Albanian people

Opinion polls and the optimism of Albanian people
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.afp.al

By Sonila Meço

Everyone wants the truth, but very few want to be honest. As a result, the consequences are suffered by a reality which gives way to a perception where we hang our desires as if they are concrete facts. A paradox which makes us suspect ourselves, our logical ability and which loses us in more absurd solutions for our problems. So, I will be looking into a paradox which, sooner or later, will put us in front of a bigger paradox. Does it look like a crazy problem? Let us analyze it by comparing findings in order to identify where is the absurd and where is the insanity in all of this.

Eurobarometer has published a standard observation on the domain of economy, as part of the periodical surveys that the European Commission conducts on member countries and on candidate countries. Based on this observation, 55% of Albanians have responded that Albania’s economic situation is generally good, 44% consider it as generally bad, while 1% has not offered any assessment.

The time when this survey was carried out coincides with the last week of May and the opening of the bizarre electoral campaign, whereby, as a result of the economic situation, the government that was elected in 2013, avoided an entire analysis of results and only offered the phrase “to come out of the crisis” as an alternative program. Therefore, to discern optimism at a time when the government was hiding beyond a missing positive result and the opposition demanding intervention, while domestic and foreign statistics indicated a critical moment for the economy, which is not competitive even in the region, means that between reality and perception, fact and declaration, there’s a significant gap for which even the government hasn’t been aware of. Otherwise, the electoral discourse would focus strongly on this positive economy which reflected promises that were kept and which, in turn, generate an inspiring optimism.

Eurbarometer has conducted face to face interviews with 1083 people and the results have been published in the European Commission’s official page. According to it, compared to Autumn last year, the number of Albanians who are optimistic about the state of the economy has grown by 20%. Albanians are even more optimistic citizens of the EU about the economy. Based on this survey, only 45% of EU citizens are optimistic about the economic situation of their country, while 51% are pessimistic about it,  although the level of poverty in Albania is the highest in Europe and GNP per capita several times smaller, even compared to the region. According to Eurostat, in 2016, Albania ranked among the poorest in the region along with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Is it possible that an Albanian citizen believes more on the Albanian economy than a Frenchman or a German in the economy of his country? Perhaps and here, we’re not yet at the brink of paradox.

Any measurement of public opinion is welcome, especially when it’s conducted by international institutions and when there are no direct interests of people in power involved. But if Europe is trying to correct the failure to recognize the problems of the region through injecting investments in infrastructure and through an acute political engagement to avoid crises, then we have the right to be skeptic on the role of their representatives in Tirana. And we are not doing this out of militancy cynicism, but out of a basic reason: The economy, the daily bread, everyone’s wellbeing, the future of the children, hard work, the savings of a lifetime and the pension to survive until death. And here, there is a need for more than just respect for figures when they are served by Eurobarometer; here, we need to rub our eyes really well, because it’s impossible to see reality through the expensive glasses of the Eurocrats, who allocated no investments whatsoever in the Trieste summit for Albania. But I’ll get to that later on.

How is this result explained in front of the stubborn facts of an economy which must either make a turn, or it will seal our doom?

Let us analyze these arguments one by one:

Let us remain in the domain of surveys. Several months ago, Gallup conducted a survey, in relation to the perception of the Albanian people for the situation in the country. This period coincides with the period of the survey conducted by the European Commission’s Eurobarometer. In that survey, 56% of Albanians responded that they were ready to emigrate and the main reason for this was economic situation. So, at the same period, more than half of Albanians want to leave and the same number see a bright economic situation in the country?

Let us continue a little further:

Let us recall the keyword of the Albanian government from 2013 until 2017: Reforms. And reforms are painful, they do not generate optimism. They generate massive discontent and they are not accepted by the masses, even less when their effect stretches beyond a mandate.

Today, Europe measures economic welfare and not just the GDP, which we all know that it should be three times higher than what it was during this government term in office in order for it to be perceived as wellbeing. GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced in the country. We also know that besides TAP project and Devoll Hydro Power Plant, consumption could not have made a miracle with economic growth. But what has happened with the incomes and the wealth of every Albanian?

Let us enrich the analysis a little: Nothing new in the front of serious investments. Business climate, tax system with sudden changes in legislation, the behavior of the tax administration have kept away or have forced many foreign investors to leave. We’re yet to see big loans by international institutions which would be spent for major projects in the country. A few days ago, the European Commission published a report of the program of reforms concerning Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo for the period 2017-2019. Based on this report: “Investments rely on natural resources and recently, they are being promoted by two major energy projects. The completion of these projects and a fall in the price of raw materials, may act as a threat for growth if the country is unable to attract sustainable investments in activities with a higher added value. How much added value have foreign investments created in the economy? Enough for more than half of 1083 respondents to see the future of the country bright?

But, at the end of the day, even if reforms are painful, if the economy moves forward and sees progress, then perception is positive. But what economy are we talking about? About the social one that we could never build through liberal reforms, privatizations, concessions and massive corruption? Where is Albanian taxpayers’ money being used? What has it been used on?

But facts will help us not to go insane in front of the paradox of the report:

Two days ago, the Department of Neighborhood and Enlargement of the European Union, published the list of projects approved in the Trieste Summit, which saw the participation of Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Kosovo. In total, the summit approved 6 projects on the sector of road transport and one concerning the energy sector, amounting to 194.1 million euros. These projects are predicted to open more than 2000 thousand new jobs. They will boost trade between Balkan countries, they will further develop the areas where they will pass and will bring significant benefits for the environment. But Albania is not part of any of those projects for which the European Union will allocate funds. This means that Albania cannot convince the EU to allocate funds for major investments. They have not faith. What about more than half of the 1083 respondents, where do they have faith on to be so optimistic?

Beware! An argument that backs the absurd appears in the horizon:

A few days ago, the Governor of the Bank of Albania declared that the economy is heading to equilibrium and has very good chances of development. He referred to the growth of the last quarter which came thanks to the growth of consumption and business investments. The moment we think that paradox is being shattered by an argument, we see a counter argument: The business has spent its own funds for investments, because the growth in crediting has not served to the needs of the business sector. Where did the business sector find this money?

But let us stick to the opinion polls. According to Monitor, the opinion poll conducted by the Albanian based Institute for Intermediacy and Democracy in Albania and Center for Research and Policymaking in Macedonia, over 84% of Albanian companies are involved in cases where they conceal their revenues and 52% of Albanians do not receive a VAT receipt every time they purchase a product or service. Also, the Report issued by OXFAM, ranks the Albanian government in the last ten countries, among countries such as Nigeria, East Timor, Afghanistan, etc, with the worst performance in the fight against inequality.

Then, this shows that the economy is not funded by official funds, but by informality. So, there’s no growth. The austere measures against informality, the austere tax measures and the frequent audits have just led to more resistance. These people were the ones who were interviewed face to face? The ones who have not received a receipt or the ones who have used informal funds? Or the rich ones who are favored at the detriment of the poor, who bear the tax burden that is refused by the former. Because this is what OXFAM says on inequality. Inequality that makes the citizen vulnerable and unclear where his taxes go. So, all of that operation that would bring the much anticipated growth, had an opposite effect. Budget revenues did not grow, business confidence dropped in spite of the efforts to fight informality. But, an effort to introduce order in poverty, when a part of those who must bring development (business) are considered as enemies, just offers more ways to redistribute poverty, by making the rich richer in unlawful ways and the poor poorer by making the state stronger (or at least thinking that the state is becoming stronger).

I will continue with the counter arguments about a result as absurd as the one of Eurobarometer:

In order for this economy to function and to be regulated, it must exist. It must recognize competition, domestic production, which is not annihilated by import, domestic businesses which cannot do anything without offering bribes. Albania is not being able to exploit its exporting capacities. Albanian companies that produce for export have difficulties in competing in regional markets and beyond with their products and this is shown by the falling figures of the recent months. The widening of the country’s trade deficit has been classified by the latest report of BMI Research, part of Fitch group, as the main challenge for Albanian finances. So, how can an economy which is not competitive create the premise of growth? Has Eurobarometer asked any of the Albanian exporters?

Here’s another counter argument:

American Central Intelligence Agency, CIA, published the data on Albania. According to this agency: “Complex tax codes and licensing requirements, the weak judicial system, endemic corruption, weak implementation of contracts and the issues of ownership, along with worn out infrastructure, contribute for a poor business environment in Albania, by making the attraction of foreign businesses even more difficult”.  CIA analyzes that the sector of agriculture, which contributes for almost half of employments in the country and one fifth of GDP, mainly consists of small family activities. This activity can barely survive due to the lack of modern equipment, uncertainties in ownership rights and the small plots of lands. Is it possible that half of Albanians believe the contrary?

To conclude, I would like to tell to my neighbor and friend, to my fellow unknown countryman who is optimistic and happy with the economy in the country: Do not kid yourself.

Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy

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