The powder keg
On the verge of delirium, the leader of VMRO-DPMMNE (Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity) declared: “Let them arrest me and let them imprison me, if I need to protect my country”. A while later, president Ivanov, also from the ranks of VMRO-DPMNE, declared: “For as long as I’m the head of the country, I shall not mandate a government which has a program that threatens the independence of Macedonia… People didn’t vote for the Albanian language (which according to the 2002 census constituted 28.3% of the population, while today it constitutes 1/3) to become the second official language and for our banknotes to change, thus threatening the unity of the country”. This was a rather ominous warning for the stability of Switzerland which has 4 official languages. 150 years ago, Samuel Johnson wrote: “Patriotism is the last shelter for scoundrels.” The last request that was made to Svejk a little before the warehouse that he was guarding, exploded, was not to light the match in the dynamite warehouse.
The EU representative for Diplomacy and Security, Mogherini, told students in Skopje: “I asked to the president to revise his decision… in order not to allow this from turning into a cross ethnic conflict and even worse, into a geo-political conflict”. Has Balkans once again turned into its natural state, a “powder keg”? Is anyone trying to dampen the powder of the keg to prevent it from blowing, as it has happened in five other occasions in the past 25 years (4 Yugoslavian wars 1991-’99, uprising of Presevo 1999-2001, Macedonian conflict 2011) and is anyone trying to light the barrel’s fuse in order for it to explode like the five previous times? Is Mogherini’s alert for a geo-political conflict real or virtual?
Synoptic table
Far away, the enigmatic Trump, who is busy arguing with women and journalists, doesn’t comment, while Rohrabacher, the head of the Foreign Committee for Europe and Security, says (on his behalf) “Macedonia is not a state. It must be divided between Kosovo and Bulgaria”. “Let us hope that Americans are not interested in Macedonia, as this would exasperate Albanians and make Macedonians happy”, says the President’s advisor, former ambassador of Macedonia to Moscow.
The Russian Foreign Ministry declares: “Macedonia is being imposed the ‘Albanian Platform’ drafted in Tirana, in the office of the Prime Minister, in close cooperation with EU and NATO officials. This is proof for Albanian territorial claims for regions of Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia and Greece, as part of the so called Greater Albania project”.
It’s true that the declaration separates the non orthodox bad guys (EU, NATO, Albania) from orthodox good guys (Russia, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia, Greece), but it doesn’t make any allusions about the Americans (not even Rohrabacher’s statement). This indicates that the weird Trump’s America is in a process of testing: Putin is not clear whether Trump is only angry with women or journalists, or whether he wants to control domains such as Southeast Europe, namely the Balkans. He doesn’t even know if the Balkans is or isn’t a zone of influence. While Putin, who plays chess very well (political and non political), knows that a misbalanced player could easily overturn the chess board. The excellent Balkan expert in the US Congress, the Republican P. Roskam, sums it up by saying “Russia will be restricted through nervous provocation. They create the image of unrest or exploit turmoil whenever there is turmoil. Macedonia is destabilized and Russians are happy with what they’re exploiting”.
Meanwhile, in the region, Serb PM, Vucic, said after the meeting with the German Foreign Minister that “Serbia is monitoring the situation in Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, but it will not intervene in the domestic affairs of these countries”; Albanian Prime Minister Rama wrote on Facebook that “Mr. Ivanov, the Albanian language is not the language of the enemy, but of a people who is a key player in the state consolidation process”. Kosovo’s President, Thaci said “With his anti-Albanian hostile approach, President Ivanov buried democracy… State of Macedonia loses its meaning without equal rights for Albanians. Albanians must take destiny in their own hands”. All of these are declarations and engagements (at least officially) that nobody will add fuel to the fire. As far as Greece is concerned, its grudge is with VMRO-DPMNE and Bulgarian media, like Rohrabacher talks about Bulgarians and Albanians and not Macedonians.
Balance of Power
As such, Macedonia is like a stadium where fans can rally, chant and scream, but they cannot enter the field. The game must be played by Macedonians, while, according to the Balance of Power theory, “Security is high, when nobody has the necessary force to dominate over the others”. “Formally, we would want to have the president’s approval. It’s good to ask the father of the girl, even if he doesn’t want you to marry his daughter”, Zaev said. Let there be fresh elections, says Gruevski, who hopes that after spreading the virus of ethnic hate, he will be supported by Bulgarian Macedonians. The Macedonian crisis will come to an end in four years time, when the next elections take place, Ali Ahmeti replies.
Meanwhile, according to the London based Risk Control Group, “Macedonian political crisis is deeper than the struggle for power between two parties. The people no longer trust police, courts, government or political parties”. The same as us. But in order for a bomb to explode, it must have the explosive (the people’s discontent) and the fuse (aggravation caused by political parties). And if the latter is omnipresent and the people are indifferent, what is there to explode?
But the Balkans is the Balkans and it follows its nature, which means that it is hard for something to explode, but this doesn’t necessarily mean that it cannot explode.
