While Lulzim Basha was delivering his speech in the 18 February rally, Berisha was worshiping it, standing on the first row of protesters. When the opposition’s tent (which was later named “Freedom’s Tent”) was set up in front of the Prime Minister’s office, Berisha sat with his legs crossed in the middle of it. Around him he had his relatives and his former ministers.
In the first days of the “Freedom’s Tent”, Berisha and several leaders of the small opposition leaders issued direct or indirect invitations to the Socialist Movement for Integration for a technocrat government. But after SMI didn’t respond to these messages, the “technocrat government” was no longer at the focus of the “Freedom’s Tent”. The words “boycott” and “New Republic” were now replaced by this phrase. And once this phrase was no longer used, Berisha’s and his relatives’ visits in the “Freedom’s Tent” stopped
But how does media and pro government portals explain these cold relations between Berisha and the “Freedom’s Tent” and the fact that the focus now is on the word “boycott”? According to them, Berisha has openly said that he’s against the boycott of elections by the DP, while Basha has continued to consider it as the last card in the hands of the opposition.
But based on the past and on the relations between Berisha and Basha, it seems that the reason why Berisha is not visiting the tent relates to the phrase “New Republic”.
If we go back to 2011, we may recall that Berisha almost didn’t participate at all in the electoral campaign for the municipality of Tirana. Being very fond of electoral campaigns, at that time, he held campaigns in all the provinces of Albania, but not a single day did he participate in the campaign in Tirana, where crowds had worshiped him at the beginning of ‘90s. This situation was hard for Berisha, but he did like Basha’s advisors told him to do, as his presence would remind the people of the capital that Basha was nothing else but Berisha’s obeyed “soldier”…
This strategy worked in 2011. He received the same number of votes that all right wing parties had received two years ago in Tirana, plus 20 thousand votes from SMI. This helped him win the same number of votes that Rama won, to win the match “in extra time” at the Central Election Commission. Unable to convince SMI for the creation of a technocrat government, it seems that Basha’s current advisers are telling him to play the same card that was played in 2011. By launching the slogan “New Republic”, they aim at presenting Basha as a leader who will separate the Democratic Party once and for all from its past. And for this strategy to work, it is necessary for Berisha, his relatives and his foreign ministers not to be seen a lot in the opposition’s protest.
Of course, pro government media and portals will try and remind voters that Basha was with Berisha when, according to Prosecution, 230 million euros were stolen with the “Nation’s Road” project; when the blast in Gerdec occurred; when on 21 January 2011, 4 people were killed in the boulevard and when Basha was very passive during his term in office as mayor of the capital. But these media are mainly followed by pro government voters…
However, for Basha’s repeated strategy (temporarily leaving Berisha on the shadow) to be successful, he must have the votes of the party that it received six years ago, SMI.
The best result achieved by the current opposition parties in the past two decades was the one achieved in 2009 with a total 740 thousand votes. But even if they managed to achieve the same result, 740 thousand votes would not be enough to bring them in power, while the total number of voters is 1 million and 740 voters.
Thus, Basha and his electoral advisors must wait until April, when SMI decides on the coalition that it will be part of for the new elections. A pre electoral coalition between DP and SMI has been categorically ruled out by Basha and Berisha and also by Meta. But a post electoral coalition has not been ruled out by any of them. This means that Berisha and Basha believe that SMI may create a pre electoral coalition without the DP or SP and depending on the results, it may decide after the elections as to whether it will enter a government coalition with the SP or DP. But it is not easy for Ilir Meta to leave the current governing coalition. If Rama’s government doesn’t step down before the elections, the coalition between Rama, Idrizi, Topi and other parties may achieve in the 12 districts of the country what it achieved in the elections of Dibra and Kolonja. But, if Rama’s government steps down before the elections, it is almost certain that SMI will create its own pre-electoral coalition, independent from the DP and SP and wait for the election result before deciding which party it should join in order to form the government.
