By EDUARD ZALOSHNJA
Following private and public discussions by political analysts in the country, I think that there’s a general opinion that the events after June 25 will see the creation of a Große Koalition (a big coalition similar to the German left wing and right wing). In such coalition, the SP and DP will govern together, by ruling out SMI and PJIU and other small parties.
The motive that led to this opinion is connected to that point of the agreement reached between Rama and Basha which talks about the non registration of pre electoral coalitions (which denies small parties the possibility to earn extra mandates within coalitions through the Sainte-Laguë formula).
Another motive relates to a point included in the agreement which talks about the cooperation between the two large parties after the elections, regarding the amendment of the Constitution and the Electoral Code. This has created strong suspicions that in the future, a new electoral system will be introduced, in order to rule out SMI and other small parties.
In fact, at first glance, there are good chances for a Große Koalition between SP and DP after June 25. But Albania is not Germany. Our country has its roots in the Byzantine Empire, where those who seemed enemies were secret allies, while those who seemed allies were in fact secret enemies.
Bearing this in mind, two other scenarios are possible:
1-A secret pact between Meta and Berisha against Rama.
While Rama and Basha were in the House of Congress to discuss their pact, Meta publicly announced a visit that he made to Berisha’ office, after which he declared that he has “a weak spot for the Doctor”. Meanwhile, on Friday, Meta declared in a TV program that he has “a weak and also a strong point for the Doctor”…
If we go back two years ago, we may recall that Ilir Meta held a speech in front of his fervent supporters in Çorovoda. In the months prior to that speech, Basha and his entourage had constantly requested Meta’s resignation as a result of the CEZ-DIA affair. And Meta responded from Çorovoda by saying that there was no opposition in the world that would request the resignation of the Speaker of Parliament without requesting the resignation of the Prime Minister.
“It’s no surprise”, Meta sarcastically said “if tomorrow they say that the opposition led by Rama and Basha is being suppressed by Meta-Meta majority…”. Then he launched the following public message for Berisha: “The good Doctor knows that I am a highlander like him. And when we say “yes”, we mean it”. He also said that “the lowlands could never prevail over the mountain regions”.
Immediately after Meta’s speech, Berisha launched a number of accusations against Rama (on Facebook), without mentioning Meta at all. And since the following day, Basha and his people no longer attacked Meta publicly.
Perhaps, we will never know what Meta meant by that “yes” that he publicly articulated in Çorovoda. But the recent developments are showing that he’s plotting something with the Doctor. Perhaps a post electoral coalition between DP and SMI (if Rama is unable to secure 71 seats).
2-A secret pact between Rama and Meta against Basha
Despite the recent aggravations of the relations between SP and SMI, Rama has constantly insisted that the alliance between these two parties is not merely an alliance of numbers, but also a strategic alliance which goes beyond the current four year term. If this is true, this alliance has its roots in the famous so called “eel” dinner between the two, which has been followed by many other dinners. They may have used these dinners to determine the main points of this long term cooperation.
But have these points been shattered by the recent developments? Maybe so, but the current aggravation may well be a tactical maneuver to convince the DP to put an end to its Tent. Thinking that he has struck a long-term deal with Rama, Basha may have accepted to put an end to the tent. While thinking that he has a long-term agreement with Meta, Berisha approved the removal of the Tent.
But in reality, the only long-term agreement is perhaps the one between Rama and Meta, which was conceived in the “eel” dinner (let’s not forget that Spartak Braho, one of Meta’s closest people, is a candidate in the list of the SP). If the agreement between Rama and Meta is the true agreement, after the elections, that will be accepted by the DP and the international community, the SP may go back to the coalition with the SMI to govern together for the next four years.
Epilogue
In circumstances where all sides are skeptic to one another, number 71 is the only guarantee for both Rama and Basha. If none of them manage to secure this number on June 25, the Prime Minister’s post will be decided by the Byzantine scenarios that different political players may have contrived. Otherwise, anything is possible…
A projection based on an opinion poll
Based on the opinion polls that I have conducted several months ago and the results of the last two elections, we have made a projection of the distribution of parliamentary mandates in the June 25 elections. This projection has been made assuming that the leaders of the ally parties of the DP will be in its candidate lists.
PROJECTION OF THE PARLIAMENTARY MANDATES
SP 69
DP 58
SMI 10
PJIU 2
LIBRA 1
TOTAL 140
