By ROLAND QAFOKU
We were all looking forward to the agreement between Edi Rama and Lulzim Basha and now that four days have gone by since 18 May 01:10, we can analyze it. After the overthrow of the communist regime, this is the sixth largest agreement between SP and DP.
The first one was the one regarding the Stability government in 1991, which led to the creation of a broad government with Ylli Bufi of the SP as Prime Minister, Gramoz Pashko of DP as deputy Prime Minister and ministers from SP and DP, but also several other parties.
The second one was the 9 March 1997 agreement which led to the creation of the National Reconciliation government with Bashkim Fino of SP as Prime Minister and ministers from the SP and DP, but also other parties. The third one was the agreement reached between Fatos Nano and Sali Berisha in 2002 which led to the election of a consensual president, Alfred Moisiu, but also a number of reforms such as the electoral one.
The fourth agreement was the one between Prime Minister Sali Berisha and leader of opposition Edi Rama to postpone local elections to February 2007 as a result of the famous birth certificates.
The fifth one was the agreement reached on 21 April 2008 between Prime Minister Sali Berisha and leader of opposition, Edi Rama which led to the bizarre constitutional changes which damaged small parties and gave birth to the new electoral system with closed candidate lists. While the 18 May agreement aims at bringing significant changes in monitoring elections and the finalization of the judicial reform despite the new government composed of right wing technocrats and a Prime Minister which doesn’t change, in reality, it looks like a government of “plumbers”, as Prime Minister Edi Rama put it.
But what are the strengths and weaknesses of this agreement and what are the advantages and disadvantages that it has for the country and the fragile democracy in Albania?
THE STRENGTHS
Unrest is prevented
Albania went through a tense situation from 18 February until 18 May. The political crisis looked like a snow ball which rolled taking with it everything it encountered and becoming a reminiscence of past negative situations. There were many of those who said that in these 27 years, Albania has been many times near the abyss, that the situation could slide to turmoil and the unrest of March 1991, March 1997, 14 September 1998 and 21 January 2011 were being mentioned not only as a memory, but as a situation which could be repeated. The phrase “democratic revolution”, “we will kick you out of office” and others like these ones had started to have an impact on the economy, tourism and other domains. But the 18 May agreement removed all doubts. For the first time, Rama and Basha managed to reach a compromise as new leaders at a time when nobody expected it. Although they were both responsible for the situation, Rama and Basha deserve a small credit: They managed to prevent Albania from going to instability, which would have fatal consequences.
A necessary compromise
Edi Rama and Lulzim Basha are the two young leaders who replaced Fatos Nano and Sali Berisha as the heads of the two most important parties in Albania. Rama 53 and Basha 43, managed to pass the first big test of solving a real crisis. Besides preventing unrest, this compromise was also necessary to show that the two politicians are not only political enemies who accuse each other from morning to evening, but also that they were also able to reach compromise in the best interest of the citizens. This is a model which may also be used by Basha as a precedent for his opponent when he’s in power. Although the foreigners were the negotiators of this deal, Rama and Basha deserve the credit of finalizing the agreement. And this is no small thing.
It guaranteed parliamentary elections
The third one, but first in terms of importance, compromise and the agreement attained a very important scope: Guarantee parliamentary elections. With a situation on the limits of a national threat being posed by the expansion of the cultivation and trafficking of cannabis, not only the opposition, but civil society too and the media have raised the alarm on the drug money that was getting ready to be used during the election campaign. The situation culminated with the seizure of tons of narcotics in Albania and Italy, but the real culmination was when a report drafted by SHISH stated that in January 2017, 21 tons of cannabis had entered Albania. But the compromise that was reached will certainly have an effect. It will put this phenomenon under control and if what was put on paper is applied, cannabis and the electoral campaign will have no connection whatsoever with each other and this way, the elections will be guaranteed. With this sort of control, after the elections, the opposition will not have an alibi if it loses them.
The realization of the judicial reform
The biggest motive of the political crisis in Albania was the judicial reform. Approved in July of last year with 140 votes in Parliament, it has not yet been applied. During this time, it was completely blocked and the vetting process turned into gridlock no.1. This way, the agreement between Rama and Basha in unblocking this reform is a great achievement which means that now institutions will start to be created in order to make up the time that was lost with the political crisis.
The Balkans became a calmer place
This is not the first time that that the segment Pristina-Skopje-Tirana is a cause for concern for the EU and USA. Tension between Kosovo and Serbia, but also Montenegro with the demarcation line, with the arrest of Ramush Haradinaj, with the clashes between opposition and the government, was topped up by the problems between Albanians and Macedonians in FYROM. And if this wasn’t enough, political conflict was triggered once again in Tirana. Surprisingly, it is triggered every time there’s another hotspot in the Balkans. Under these circumstances, the EU and US emissaries would never want an extra situation in Tirana between Albanians and Albanians, in contrast to the one in Kosovo between Albanians and Serbs and in Macedonia between Albanians and Macedonians. So, the end of the political conflict in Tirana through the agreement reached between Rama and Basha is at the same time one less problem for the West, but also for a calmer Balkans.
THE WEAKNESSES OF THE AGREEMENT
A precedent to postpone the elections
Now, every government in Albania must be prepared about the fact that the opposition may make its life a living hell, by setting up a tent in the boulevard, demanding its own technocrat ministers, demanding the postponement of the elections and cause a political crisis without the slightest of problems. Albania had a precedent for the 2007 local government elections, but the postponement of the current elections “completes” the parliamentary elections. This creates a dangerous precedent which gives any opposition party in Albania the right to recall and ask what was done in 2007 and on 18 May of this year.
Where is the opposition?
With six ministers and a deputy Prime Minister and also five important departments in the administration, it’s true that Edi Rama’s technocrat government resembles to a government of “plumbers”. Imagine how the ministers who will be appointed by the DP start work. Will the opposition denounce the work done in these six ministries? Will the ministry of Interior publish the figures on crime, fight on cannabis, etc? Of course, the DP will not denounce its own ministers or the departments that it chairs. And neither can the SP. This may lead us to wonder: Where is the opposition?
SP-DP domination and avoidance of SMI
It’s been a while now that Albanian politics has three poles. In 2002, the first one to declare this was Sali Berisha when he said that Fatos Nano, Sali Berisha and Ilir Meta were the skeleton of Albanian politics. But, truth be told, the agreement between Rama and Basha has weakened SMI. We must also add here the fact that Rama “sent” Ilir Meta to the Presidency and with Petrit Vasili as its leader, the SMI will not be the same. SMI and Meta have denied this conclusion, but in reality, there is only one truth: SMI is expected to be more motivated in these circumstances to denounce the mistakes made by the government. SMI has another advantage: it could turn into the real opposition party, by attacking the SP and DP as the two responsible parties for these situations.
Disappearance of small parties
Before the agreement, small parties were liked by the large parties. But as soon as the compromise was achieved, both DP and SP no longer need them. For the DP, the inclusion of the chairmen of the small parties in its candidate list was a solution, but not that efficient of a solution, because ally parties could not expand and as a result, shrink if the only representative that they have in parliament is their leader. With one leader in Parliament, the dynamics of small parties is expected to be lower.
Technocrat ministers without technicalities
There’s puzzling thing about the ministries who will be led by technocrats. Why and how should we consider the figures that are elected? They’re proposed by Basha, but they don’t belong to the DP. Rama accepts them, but they don’t belong to the SP. But is there anyone in Albania whose politics convictions are unknown to us? Who is that person politically unaffected and mathematically unbiased? What’s more, who is this technocrat who becomes a guarantor of the elections, at a time when his role is to observe and nothing else? It would be extraordinary if these six were successful.
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Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy
