Number 71 and Berisha…

Number 71 and Berisha…
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.afp.al

By Eduard Zaloshnja

A few days ago, Gramoz Ruçi declared from Fier that in no circumstances will the Socialist Party enter a coalition with the Socialist Movement for Integration after June 25. As far as Meta’s declaration that he will not decree the Prime Minister of there are irregularities in the election are concerned, Ruçi said that if Ilir Meta violates the Constitution, he will be the first President to be discharged.

If we reflect on Ruçi’s declarations, they seem to imply that there will be a big coalition between the Socialist Party and the Democratic Party after the elections, because the President of the Republic of Albania may be removed by Parliament with 93 votes.

But are we going to have a big coalition if the Socialist Party manages to secure 71 seats on its own on 25 June? What are the chances of the Socialist Party to obtain 71 seats on June 25?

An electronic opinion poll that I conducted during the weekend, showed that if the elections were held yesterday, the Socialist Party would receive 46% +/-2% of the votes, thus winning 70+/-2 seats in Parliament. As the curve of the density function of probability  in the accompanying figure shows, the Socialist Party was most likely (if the elections were held yesterday) to obtain 69, 70 or 71 seats. Meanwhile, the lowest probability was for it to win 68 or 72 seats.

Another intensive week of election campaign is remaining until the June 25 elections (perhaps the most intensive one) and things may change (let us not forget that based on the opinion mentioned above, 10% of voters living in Albania are undecided if and who they will vote). However, it seems the probability that the SP receives 71 seats or more is the same with the probability that it obtains 70 or least seats.

It remains to be seen if the SP will enter a big coalition with the Democratic Party, if it secures the 71 seats on its own. But, in spite of the result, Ruci’s threat for Meta’s discharge from the post of the President of Republic would only be applied in case of a big scenario. Otherwise,  different kinds of scenarios may emerge.

If the Socialist Party is not able to obtain 71 seats and Meta declares that he will not recognize the elections (claiming for irregularities), Berisha may emerge on the surface like a submarine which emerges above water. Praised almost every day by Meta and his people (since the agreement reached between Rama and Basha), Berisha has not been seen a lot during this election campaign. However, in his rare public appearances, he has attacked Rama by stressing that a big coalition between SP and DP would be impossible.

Although Basha is the official chairman of the Democratic Party, Berisha may not accept the creation of a big governing coalition, which would see Rama as Prime Minister and Basha as deputy Prime Minister. He could support a small coalition with Basha as Prime Minister and Petrit Vasili and Shpetim Idrizi as deputy Prime Ministers. And in such circumstances, it would be impossible for the MPs selected by Basha to contest the idea of the DP’s patriarch for the creation of a coalition between DP-SMI-PJIU, with Basha as Prime Minister.

But in a situation like this, Rama would act. If he needs one or two votes to form a government and if the DP (meaning Berisha) doesn’t accept such a big coalition, Rama could propose Shpetim Idrizi the post of the deputy Prime Minister in a government voted by the SP and PJIU.

However, this scenario would once again encounter Meta’s resistance and Rama could only overcome this resistance if OSCE/ODIHR certifies the elections, while powerful western chancelleries put pressure on Meta to decree the formation of the government…

The republication of this article is strictly forbidden without a written permission from the Albanian Free Press newsroom

Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy

Shpërndajeni me miqtë tuaj: