By Plator Nesturi
The left continues to be on top. This is the impression that offers the first opinion poll carried out by IPR Marketing and published by Ora News. The figures of the opinion poll which suggest that the Socialist Party remains on top with 43%, the Socialist Movement for Integration with 12% and LIBRA party led by Ben Blushi with 2.3% indicate that even in these elections, Albanians will mostly vote for the left wing. If we gather these figures, then we may notice that 57% of the voters prefer the left wing as a choice. Another interesting thing is that the two main political forces of the left, SP and SMI have registered a growth compared to the 2013 results, while LIBRA suddenly appears as an ambitious project in its first electoral battle.
The Democratic Party has also registered an increase on a national level to 36%, but this advancement in terms of figures cannot be compared with the high number of votes going to left wing parties. What’s more, other small right wing parties, which have become part of the joint list of the Democratic Party, will not participate in these elections. In this aspect, the big battle under the tent, which went on for three months, doesn’t seem to have been significantly reflected in a growth, even less, in the goal to overthrow the Socialist Party and the left wing in general on its own.
Although we’re at the start of the election campaign, the fact that the three main forces have seen a growth in votes, seems a paradox, because traditionally, in previous elections, the growth of one side has led to a leak in votes for the other side. The chart of the three last parliamentary elections clearly shows this. The two joint government allies, SP and SMI, doesn’t seem to have been affected by the fact that ruling parties usually lose votes when they are in power, but in this case, both of these parties together have grown by 5%. And this is no good news for the opposition, because it shows that its battle has not managed to inspire trust and even less, optimism.
However, the picture is complex and it is hard to make accurate predictions on the next majority. All three left wing parties, which have a high support, seem to be opponents in this campaign and this, not due to the fact that these parties want to measure their strength. SP and SMI would once again secure a strong majority if after the June 25 elections, they would agree to forge a coalition for a new term. But the situation doesn’t look that simple. The internal conflicts that were seen during the four year term in office and the accusations lack of trust have left a very bitter taste for both parties. And when Rama asks for people’s votes with the aim of winning 71 seats in parliament, he says that he wants this in order not to hold anybody else on his “lap”. And it’s not hard to understand that he makes an allusion to SMI.
On the other hand, although the DP doesn’t seem to have a significant growth in numbers according to the poll, its advantage has to do with the fact that the votes of the right wing are unified. The votes of its allies, where the most influential ones seem to be the votes of PAA led by Duka and Republican Party, will gather in the big “pot” under the logo of the Democratic Party, which in itself will maximize the result by avoiding the small percentages of small parties, if they participated in the elections on their own. However, there’s also a post electoral risk. The representatives of the ally parties coming out of the DP joint list, may raise the flag of their parties after the elections and not the DP’s. And this cannot avoid a possible decision of an ally party to join a coalition outside the DP’s interests.
The situation remains complex and the results are still unclear. Percentages on a national level cannot offer a clear picture of how the distribution of seats won by each party will be. The distribution or maximization in particular circles may penalize someone and offer a victory to the other. And the main battle will take place once again in the large constituencies, where the most number of seats are.
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