Where did the votes of the right wing go?

Where did the votes of the right wing go?
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.afp.al

In this article you will find a demographic-electoral analysis of the big leak of votes that the right wing suffered in the June 25 elections.

By Eduard Zaloshnja

In the past 20 years, the number of voters who participate in the elections has increased from one election to another. This increase is explained with the natural increase of the population of Albanians eligible to vote (more than 1 million migrant workers and even if they want to, they cannot come to vote). Given that the ratio of the population aged 18-100 against the population aged 0-17 years old is growing (Albania is aging demographically), the number of voters who are resident in Albania, increased by the year, in spite of the constant migration.

In the parliamentary elections of 2013, 1 million and 750 thousand voters participated in the elections and this is a record number, only registered in 1992. By factorizing the growth with 5% of the number of people eligible to vote, the 20 year tendency of the participation in the parliamentary elections suggests that the natural “pot” of voters in the June 25 elections would be around 1 million and 840 thousand.

But, like never before in the past two decades, the number of participants in the country fell significantly, instead of growing–only 1 million and 615 thousand voters participated in the voting (see chart 1).

To understand which party suffered the most as a result of this leak in turnout, I have built chart 2, which compares the natural “pots” of votes on one side with the factual votes that they received on the other. The natural electoral “pot” of the DP and RP mostly consisted of voters who had voted for the 25 right wing parties in 2013, plus the portion of the natural growth of the number of residents eligible to vote, which belonged to the right wing (I have calculated PJIU on its own, as a party that switched camps and which ended up in the middle on 25 June).

On the other hand, the natural electoral pot of SP+SDP consisted of 1 million and odd voters that voted for left wing parties/candidates in 2013, minus the voters of SMI and the Greek minority party, plus the portion of natural growth of the number of eligible voters which belonged to the left wing. The chart clearly shows that DP+RP have suffered a terrible leak-around 230 thousand votes less than their natural electoral pot. And if we compare the second chart to the first one, we see that the total leak of turnout coincides with the leak of right wing votes. There were also leaks from another right wing party, the New Democratic Spirit Party (NDSP), which from 30 thousand voters in its natural electoral “pot”, it only obtained 5 thousand votes (other small right wing parties ran under the logo of the DP and their leaders were part of the candidate list of the latter).

In the left wing of the Albanian politics, SP+DP obtained 70 thousand votes less than they had in their natural “pot” of votes. But where did these votes go? On a macro level, a part of them went for Blushi’s LIBRA (and to Milo’s Social Democracy Party, which was not included in the above chart), while the rest seems to have gone to the other two parties that seem have increased the number of votes that they received significantly, SMI and PJIU.

So, SMI received 227 thousand votes or 37 thousand more than its natural number. And this number came from almost all 12 districts of the country. On the other hand, PJIU exceeded its own electoral “pot” by 30 thousand votes, but an extraordinary growth was registered in two districts–Elbasan and Dibra (its growth in Tirana was normal, while in its traditional districts, in Fier and in Vlora, it shrank).

Of course, if we add up the growth of SMI with that of PJIU and add up LIBRA’s and Social Democracy Party votes, the total number is greater than the leak of the SP+SDP. This means that the two parties that grew significantly this year may have also obtained votes from disappointed right wing voters.

It’s important to stress that this analysis is on a macro level. On a micro level, we can find individual cases, when a neighborhood or a village, a former commune or municipality, has registered a different electoral trend from the country’s trend. For instance, in Kamza, the Democratic Party obtained the normal votes that it usually obtains, while in the former commune of Kerraba, the result changed completely, from 90% in favor of SMI in 2013 to 70% in favor of the SP in 2017…

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Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy

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