Who will be Prime Minister after June 25? Will Edi Rama continue to be the 33rd Prime Minister of the Albanian state or are we going to have a new name as his predecessor? The 10 scenarios that will decide the name of the head of the government based on the votes that political parties will obtain on Sunday. From the possibility of Rama being elected for a second term in office to Lulzim Basha, Petrit Vasili, Ilir Meta and a technocrat Prime Minister. Journalist Roland Qafoku brings the possible combinations in this article.
By Roland Qafoku
Is the 33rd Prime Minister of the Albanian state, Edi Rama, going to secure another term in office, or are we going to have someone else who will write his name as the 34rd Prime Minister? This is the biggest question on June 25, which certainly depends on the election result, their winner, but not as much from the party that obtains more seats in Parliament. The calculations which are expected to be made based on the results, will create a new situation in the Albanian political spectrum and this spectrum will go through at least 10 scenarios. These scenarios will show that the name of the Prime Minister is expected to be decided by the parliamentary elections.
1.Edi Rama is elected Prime Minister for a second term in office
The first scenario is the one where Edi Rama holds on to another four years to the post of the Prime Minister of the Albanian state, remaining in power for as long as his predecessor, Sali Berisha. This scenario is only possible if the Socialist Party receives 71 seats and needs no other parties to form a government. This is the reason why Edi Rama has made this figure the objective of the Socialist Party, using words such as “steering wheel” for what he’s willing to do in the next four years, but also by branding as “leeches” everyone who didn’t allow him to “steer the wheel” on his own for the previous four years. But even the most optimistic opinion polls held by the Socialist Party have not been able to give this party 71 seats in Parliament. So, small parties will be the only way for Edi Rama to hold on to power until 2021. Who these parties will be, this will be part of the other scenarios.
- Edi Rama will not be a Prime Minister, but this post will belong to the SP
Rama may not hold on to the “steering wheel”, but the “steering wheel” may still remain in the hands of the Socialist Party. The other parties that accept to forge a coalition with the SP, may demand for Edi Rama not to serve as Prime Minister. Under these circumstances, Rama cannot make a “political suicide” by passing the right of forming a government to the second party on the list, the Democratic Party. So, we may see the emergence of other candidates for the post of Prime Minister, who will be people loyal to Edi Rama, in order for him to have them under control. Such names include people like Niko Peleshi, Ditmir Bushati, Eduard Shalesi, Damian Gjiknuri and Bledar Çuçi. But another scenario may take place in this case, where a woman may hold for the first time in the history of Albanian politics the post of the Prime Minister. Mimi Kodheli, Ermonela Felaj, Elona Gjebrea, Milena Harito are potential candidates, who certainly meet the same condition as the men do: Loyalty to Rama. Within this scenario, we may have the much debated option of the SP and DP to forge a big coalition. If this scenario takes place, it bring the same formula according to which, these two parties form a government together, with the condition that Edi Rama doesn’t hold the post of Prime Minister.
- Lulzim Basha Prime Minister
Lulzim Basha is aiming to become the 34th Prime Minister of the Albanian state. But what are the chances for this to happen? Even the most optimistic opinion polls do not make the Democratic Party a winner of these elections. Even the four minute meeting that Lulzim Basha had with the US President, Donald Trump, will not award an election victory to the Democratic Party. As a result, chances for Lulzim Basha to become Edi Rama’s successor are very slim. It would be surprising if he is catapulted in the government’s central building. The first surprising thing is for Edi Rama to leave him with this high post, at a time when he, himself, cannot occupy it and when another name within the SP is demanded for this post.
- Petrit Vasili Prime Minister
The president elect, Ilir Meta has often said that after June 25, Rama and Basha will beg Prime Minister Petrit Vasili to make a coalition with him. But what chances does Petrit Vasili have of becoming the 34rd Prime Minister? The chances are small, but if we take all the possibilities into account, Vasili is more likely to become Prime Minister than Basha is. Petrit Vasili may become Prime Minister if the Socialist Movement for Integration wins the elections. Vasili may also become Prime Minister if SMI obtains a sufficient number of seats in order to condition not only 71 seats as a majority, but also if this political force obtains a sufficient number of seats in order for the Socialist Party to be put in front of the condition: Either Vasili is elected Prime Ministers, or the SP moves to opposition.
- Ilir Meta Prime Minister
Ilir Meta has entered history as the 31st Prime Minister of the Albanian state, being considered as one of the most successful prime ministers of the left wing. During his time in office, which lasted 2 years, 2 months and 1 day, Meta’s results were impressive: Albania’s economic growth was 10%. After the economic stability that Meksi’s government brought from 1992 until 1994, this was the biggest economic growth that Albania has had since the fall of communism. Meta and many of his supporters have been wishing for years that Meta is once again elected as head of the government. Berisha tried this after he served as president and the first two years of his government, are some of the best years in the past 27 years. And if Meta is once again elected Prime Minister, he will do everything in order for his government to be different to Edi Rama’s government in many aspects. But Meta has a big obstacle to overcome in order to be a Prime Minister. First, whose votes will make him a Prime Minister and secondly, if he has this votes, he has been elected president and as such, it’s not that easy for him to abandon his mandate and choose to serve as Prime Minister. But this is not how calculations are made. The number of seats decides everything and as such, Meta may withdraw from the post of the president to become a Prime Minister. His catapulting in the post of the head of the state was a reluctant decision of his and as such, between the post of Prime Minister and President, Ilir Meta would certainly choose the former.
- Technocrat Prime Minister chosen by the Democratic Party
There’s a scenario which based on all likelihood, it’s the most interesting one. If the Socialist Party doesn’t obtain 71 seats and the Democratic Party and Socialist Movement for Integration do not enter a coalition with it, the DP will be entitled to be mandated by the President of Republic to choose the Prime Minister. But, in a situation where the Democratic Party doesn’t have the necessary number of mandates to dictate the Prime Minister, SMI and PJIU may impose the condition that neither Lulzim Basha, nor Petrit Vasili will be prime ministers. Being the first political force, the DP may choose a Prime Minister from within its ranks, a candidate who would have the profile of a technocrat. The current deputy Prime Minister, Ledina Mandija, but also other names such as Tomorr Alizoti and Dritan Shano are part of this option. However, chances for this to happen are few.
- Technocrat Prime Minister appointed by SMI
If the 6th option is impossible to be fulfilled, the SMI may be the one to appoint the technocrat Prime Minister. He may not come from the structures of the Socialist Movement for Integration, but he may support this political party. Names such as Sokol Nako may be ideal for SMI. But this may also include figures such as Pellumb Xhufi, who has left this political force, or some diplomat. Even this option is less likely to happen.
- A Prime Minister between SMI and DP
This is a very applauding scenario if the coalition is forged. But the obstacle may relate to the name of the Prime Minister. There can be clashes between DP and SMI on the issue of names, but they may choose a figure who is equidistant from both the DP and SMI. Halim Kosova would be an equidistant name from the DP and SMI, thanks to his positivity. Kosova is a name that both of these forces would accept as PM in such situation.
- A Prime Minister from PJIU
At the time being, Party for Justice, Integration and Unity is much closer to the Socialist Movement for Integration, although they’re part of the same government. In the absence of an accord between DP and SMI for a technocrat Prime Minister, PJIU may act as a rescue boat in order not to sink the country in a political crisis. This also depends on the number of seats in Parliament that this political force will secure. Based on this scenario, Shpetim Idrizi and Mesila Doda may be two potential candidates for the post of Prime Minister. However, chances for this are slim.
- Bujar Nishani Prime Minister
Bujar Nishani will remain President for another 29 days after the elections. Almost every journalist has asked him what the head of the state do once his term in office runs out. When he assumed office, the ninth President of the Republic said that he would resign from politics once his mandate ends. But the clashes with the Socialist Party of Prime Minister Rama have led him hungrier politically and have pushed him into thinking not to leave politics. A possible return to the DP would be an option, but given a new situation after the elections, his name would be ideal as Prime Minister, if the SP doesn’t mandate Rama as Prime Minister. This possibility depends on the calculations that political parties make in terms of the seats that they obtain in Parliament.
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