What do the June 25 election results tell us about the local elections?

What do the June 25 election results tell us about the local elections?
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.afp.al

By  EDUARD ZALOSHNJA

After the Prime Minister and the new leader of DP were elected and after the new president was inaugurated, the attention of the public opinion is now focused on the summer holidays. But the mayors and those who pretend to become mayors, perhaps have started to think in advance as to what they will do to be elected after 600 days.

The results of the parliamentary elections act as a good basis to start the analysis of the likely winners in the local government elections. So, in the 2015, the candidates of the majority won in almost all the municipalities where they had won in the parliamentary elections, with the exception of Pogradec, Lezha, Mallakastra and Permet. In the first three, the candidates proposed by SMI did not receive adequate support by the SP’s local branches, while the socialist candidate of Permet didn’t seem to have very good relations with the socialists  of Permet.

In the next local government elections (in 600 days), the Socialist Party is not likely to enter as a big coalition, as it did in 2015, however, alongside the votes of socialist supporters, it will also aim at obtaining the votes of the people who voted Tom Doshi, Reme Lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who have declared that they will support PM Rama.

On the other hand, it seems that the DP, SMI and other opposition parties, will support opposition candidates, in order to reduce as much as possible the support for socialist candidates.

Assuming that this will be the configuration of the electoral battle in two years time, the results of the June 25 elections show that the SP’s candidates, in at least 35 municipalities, will start the race in advantage against a possible coalition between DP-SMI-etc. In these 35 municipalities, the SP and its MPs have won more than 50% of the votes, achieving maximum result in the municipality of Librazhd with 73% (see table 1).

In 7 other municipalities, the SP and MPs that support it, came close to the 50% (47.77% - 49.79%). As a result, in these municipalities we can expect a narrow result (see table 2).

Meanwhile, in 19 municipalities, the SP and its MPs received less than 46% of votes (see table 3). If opposition parties join forces (without playing any dirty games against each other), their candidates have good chances to win in these 19 municipalities.

Table 1. Percentage of SP’s votes in the municipalities where it obtained more than 50% on June 25

RankingMunicipality%  Votes
1Librazhd*73,18%
2Pukë*69,12%
3Peqin*66,42%
4Poliçan66,26%
5Fushë-Arrëz*65,44%
6Divjakë64,31%
7Selenicë64,29%
8Vlorë64,23%
9Belsh*63,18%
10Tepelenë62,43%
11Gramsh*61,59%
12Elbasan*61,29%
13Himarë60,91%
14Roskovec60,32%
15Memaliaj60,12%
16Dibër*60,04%
17Lushnjë59,37%
18Prrenjas*57,88%
19Patos57,32%
20Ura Vajgurore56,94%
21Sarandë56,21%
22Malsi e Madhe*56,04%
23Shijak55,48%
24Kuçovë54,99%
25Maliq54,85%
26Pogradec54,85%
27Berat54,74%
28Fier54,62%
29Konispol53,65%
30Këlcyrë53,25%
31Libohovë52,16%
32Korçë52,10%
33Përmet51,75%
34Tiranë51,42%
35Krujë50,83%

*In the municipalities of the districts of Shkoder, Elbasan and Dibra, the SP has increased the number of its votes only with the votes received by MPs Tom Doshi, Reme Lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who have declared their support for the PM

Table 2. Percentage of SP’s votes in the municipalities where it came close to 50% on June 25

RankingMunicipality%  Votes
1Kolonjë49,79%
2Kukës49,72%
3Mat*49,67%
4Mallakastër49,23%
5Durrës48,41%
6Gjirokastër47,85%
7Cërrik*47,77%

* In the municipalities of the districts of Shkoder, Elbasan and Dibra, the SP has increased the number of its votes only with the votes received by MPs Tom Doshi, Reme Lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who have declared their support for the PM

 

Table 3. Percentage of SP’s votes in the municipalities where it obtained less than 46% on June 25

RankingMunicipality%  Votes
1Delvinë45,94%
2Mirditë45,75%
3Klos*44.86%
4Finiq44,56%
5Vau-Dejës*44,15%
6Shkodër*42,85%
7Rrogozhinë42,82%
8Kavajë42,66%
9Has41,87%
10Lezhë41,23%
11Bulqizë*40,21%
12Kurbin39,57%
13Skrapar37,59%
14Pustec37,03%
15Kamëz35,07%
16Devoll33,23%
17Vorë33,16%
18Tropojë32,06%
19Dropull27,08%

*In the municipalities of the districts of Shkoder, Elbasan and Dibra, the SP has increased the number of its votes only with the votes received by MPs Tom Doshi, Reme Lala, Aqif Rakipi and Bujar Muça, who have declared their support for the PM

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