By Alfred Peza
Yesterday’s elections in Germany did attract some degree of interest from the political elite in Tirana and the population, but if we had the US presidential elections, then the public here would react differently. This Sunday was another wasted chance for the media to come out of the local and provincial trap where it has put itself for a while now.
Yesterday’s elections were seen differently in Kosovo, but also in Macedonia, Montenegro and Southern Serbia. I will not stop at great length on the part beyond the borders of the Republic of Albania, because the migratory relations of Albanians of former Yugoslavia with Germany were different to the relations that we had.
Although more than a quarter of a century has gone by and the post communist period has brought new geo-political realities not only for Germany, but also for Albanians in the Balkan, the threads have not been cut off entirely. Therefore, the old relations still seem to dictate to a certain degree the different approach of the media, Albanian public opinion, but also the relations which are not entirely unified of the political leadership in Tirana and Pristina and little less in Tetovo, Ulcinj and Bujanovc in the eyes of Berlin.
What is the political class in Tirana expecting?
Based on the main candidates in the race, their profiles, careers and their chances to win or lose the possibility of governing Germany in the next four years, there are different expectations from the main political leaders in Albania. CDU’s Angela Merkel who is expected to obtain a fourth term in office as Chancellor, but also SPD’s Martin Schulz, who is running for a first term in office, thanks to his long career in Europe, are not unknown to Edi Rama, Lulzim Basha, Sali Berisha or Ilir Meta. As a result, each of them will certainly have their own preference in the interest of the future of their personal, political and institutional relations with the head of the most powerful state of Europe and as a result, NATO and the EU.
Rama
For PM Edi Rama, the German elections must be a win win story, if we consider his relations with Chancellor Merkel and also the former President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz. Here, we’re not only dealing with personal relations between two politicians, but also with a long institutional history. With Chancellor Merkel, the continuity of these relations would not be mysterious, in particular in regards to the big decision of setting a date for the launch of Albania’s EU accession talks during the first half of next year. On the other hand, if we take into account the fact that Martin Schulz is the chairman of the German Social Democratic Party, an important member of the Socialist Internationale and left wing European parties, where the SP is part of, then a future without any mysteries is guaranteed.
Basha
But we cannot say the same thing about the expectations of the leader of the Democratic Party, Lulzim Basha, who seems to be living a “lose lose story” situation between the two main candidates in the race, because for him and the DP, it would be the same, regardless of who wins, Merkel or Schulz, if we take into account the relations in the past few months. Although Albania’s DP is closer to Merkel’s CDU, because they are both part of the European right wing parties union, this doesn’t seem to favor it. We just need to recall the period prior to the 25 June elections in Albania, when the opposition set up a tent and when the support of the right wing German allies was completely missing. Let us not forget the public and non-public criticism that Basha received from Berlin and Brussels urging him to end the boycott and enter negotiations with PM Rama for a solution which would please everyone. And this is what actually happened. As far as Basha’s relations with Martin Schulz are concerned, it’s clear that these relations favor SP and Rama more than they favor the Democratic Party.
Meta
As far as Ilir Meta is concerned, based on the relations so far with CDU’s Merkel and SDP’s Schulz, I think that he’s in a different position to Rama and Basha in this story. Here, the analysis is made for Ilir Meta as former chairman of SMI more than a President of the country who’s above all parties. In this case, he should clearly opt for Schulz, although exit polls up until last night favored Merkel for the post of the 9th Chancellor of Germany after World War II. Meta’s preference is also related to a long history of political relations between an important figure of the European and world left wing such as Schulz and the former leader of a left wing party in Albania.
Merkel
The iron lady has been leading Germany since 22 November 2005 (when Berisha had just won against Nano and had come back to power as Prime Minister) for three four year terms in office, aiming for a fourth term. Exit polls favored her and if she wins, she would achieve a historical record among the 8 leaders who helped Germany rise after World War II.
The first one was the chancellor of “reconciliation”, Konrad Adenauer (CDU), who led the country for 14 years after the war. Adenauer was followed by the chancellor who was responsible for the country’s economic boom, Ludwig Erhard (CDU). He only governed three years. The third one was George Kiesinger (CDU) who is considered as the Chancellor who brought the country closer to the communist East and chaired the first cabinet consisting of a broad coalition of parties. The fourth one was Nobel Prize winner, Willi Brandt, who became the first chancellor of SPD and who governed under the slogan “more democracy” and who gave an important contribution for the reconciliation between East and West. Then it’s Helmut Schimdt, again from the SPD. Schmidt governed for two terms in office and he was considered as the chancellor who mitigated tensions. The chancellor with the highest longest time in office is the chancellor who unified the two Germanies, Helmut Kohl (CDU). Kohl governed remained 4 terms in office or 16 years. Kohl takes credit for the unification of the two Germanies that separated after the War and he became the founding father of the joint European currency and the Union’s expansion. Kohl was followed by Gerhard Schroder, who is considered as the chancellor of “reforms”. Merkel is third on the list after Schroder. She comes from the domain of physics and became the first woman and citizen of the East to govern united Germany after the war. Under her leadership, the country has become the most important exporter in the world and it has the lowest level of unemployment since the collapse of the Berlin Wall.
Even if the winner of yesterday’s elections is confirmed and has become official now, the creation of the new government will certainly require several months because CDU and SDP may need to enter a coalition with the third party. This is considered a race as important as the big race, because the party that will rank third, will certainly be part of the new government, while the party ranking second will remain in opposition for another 4 years.
Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy
