Will the DP and SMI be a united or a divided opposition?

Will the DP and SMI be a united or a divided opposition?
By Eduard Zaloshnja

The Democratic Party and the Socialist Movement for Integration maintained similar positions, in essence, but they were different in terms of result when Gramoz Ruci was voted as Albania’s Assembly Speaker. SMI boycotted the voting, while the DP participated in it, declaring its vote against Ruci. As a result, Ruci didn’t obtain any votes from the SMI, while in the secret ballot, he obtained (at least) two votes from the democrat MPs.

This lack of synchron between the two opposition parties in the first important voting in Parliament after the voting of the Socialist Party, could have been the result of a lack of coordination between them, but also a sign of a long-term strategy of non-cooperation. It’s clear that this riddle will be answered in the months to come, but today, let us analyze the reasons why these parties would want to collaborate… or not collaborate.

Why would SMI want to collaborate with the DP?

In the elections that were held three months ago, SMI obtained 45 thousand more votes than four years ago, but 35 thousand votes less than two years ago. And after two years, it will once again participate in the elections as an opponent of the SP. If SMI shrinks again in numbers in two years time, it would send a message to its voters that this is no longer the party that only registers growth. What’s more, if it decides to run separately from the Democratic Party, it may only win in Skrapar (based on the results received three months ago).

Under these circumstances, SMI has a vital need for a strong cooperation agreement with the DP. Based on this agreement, it is interested to come out with joint opposition candidates in the elections that will take place in two years, in order to pretend a victory in municipalities other than the one in Skrapar. This way, it could send out a message to its voters that it continues to be a strong contestant for power as a party with a national profile and not just a local one.

At a second phase, SMI would be interested in a big pre-election coalition in 2021, to join votes against the SP, which in the recent elections, also exploited the fact that the 18 political parties raced on their own.

Of course, such strategic cooperation between DP and SMI would only make sense if Basha withdraws from the deal that he made with Rama on 18 May, according to which, constitutional and electoral amendments will soon take place (in all likelihood, to harm SMI’s political interests). And here, we come to the question…

Why would the DP want to collaborate with SMI?

In 2009, the total number of votes that right wing parties obtained was 710 thousand, while SMI only obtained 75 thousand votes. Since the agreement between Berisha and Meta that year, the right wing votes have shrunk dramatically, while the votes of SMI have increased dramatically.  So, in the elections that were held three months ago, the number of votes that the right wing parties obtained went down to 460 thousand (or 250 thousand less than in 2009), while SMI obtained 225 thousand (or 150 thousand more than in 2009).

A fresh agreement between DP and SMI could continue this trend. The 250 thousand voters who have no longer voted for right wing parties could lack motivation to go back to them if SMI becomes an important part of their coalition. Meanwhile, those those 250 thousand voters who have left, could be joined by others…

Under these circumstances, the arrival of the DP in power would entirely depend on SMI, which, in case of returning to power with the DP, could become very greedy. And in the long-term, the DP, which obtained 1 million votes the first time it came in power (in 1992), could end up ranking third…

On the other hand, the constitutional and electoral amendments (based on the agreement between Rama and Basha on 18 May) would gradually cause SMI to shrink, but they do not guarantee a fast growth of the DP (the DP is currently 300 thousand votes behind the SP…).

In conclusion

The Socialist Movement for Integration is more than interested on a long-term coalition with the DP. On the other hand, the DP must decide if it wants to do it (with a shred of hope for a joint victory with SMI in 2021) or if it wants to continue on its own (with the hope that one day, it will become the biggest party in the country).

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