The pathways that lead to the elections

The pathways that lead to the elections
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.afp.al

Very little time is remaining for the registration of those political parties that want to participate in the 18 June elections. But it is not yet clear how many parties will register, because opposition parties are insisting on Edi Rama to resign and for a technocrat government to be formed, while SMI insists on the elections to be held without the opposition.

In such circumstances, the pathways toward the elections are several.

Pathway 1–Ilir Meta and the international community manage to convince the opposition to participate in the elections with the current government, but by making amendments in the electoral code and the way elections are organized, in order to make sure that they meet high standards.

In such scenarios, the opposition would enter the elections in a very weak position, because it would have to give up on a request for which it has started a protest in the central boulevard of Tirana for the past month and a half now.

Pathway 2­–Ilir Meta and the international community manage to convince Edi Rama for the creation of a “government of confidence”, coming out of a round table with the opposition, while SMI officially signs the coalition agreement with the SP for the four coming years. If this happens, a constitutional mechanism may be found to postpone the elections to September, in order for the “government of confidence” to have sufficient time to prepare the elections.

In this scenario, we would have an electoral race between a coalition which has received 1 million votes in the last two elections (2013 and 2015) and a coalition which has received 620-660 thousand votes. But until the elections are held, something may happen or may be provoked to offer SMI a pretext to leave the coalition with the SP and in this case, the election result would be difficult to be predicted.

Pathway 3–Ilir Meta and the international community cannot convince Edi Rama for the formation of a “government of confidence”. Meta blames Rama for the tension and instability that may be created without such government and initiates a non confidence motion in Parliament against the Prime Minister. In such scenario, opposition parties may register for the 18 June elections within the legal deadline, if Meta guarantees 71 votes in Parliament to replace Rama with a Prime Minster accepted by the opposition, SMI and some other parliamentary party.

If such incentive is successful, SMI is more likely to form a pre election coalition on its own, in order for none of the large parties to be able to secure 71 seats in parliament. This way, it would continue to remain crucial for creation of a government after the elections.

Pathway 4­–Ilir Meta and the international community cannot convince Edi Rama for the creation of a “government of confidence”, while SMI cannot secure 71 votes to topple Rama through a non confidence motion in Parliament. In this case, SMI could register for the 18 June elections at the last moment, even if the opposition is not registered, or follow the example of the latter.

In case SMI participates in the elections, where the opposition will not, it would turn out to be a minority party in Parliament, because the 140 seats would be distributed between SP on one side and SMI and other small parties on the other.

In case SMI doesn’t participate in the elections, by joining the opposition, the elections would be formal and there could be instability as a result of the protests of the DP and SMI, which would make it impossible for Edi Rama to govern. In such case, the international community, would put a lot of pressure for the holding of early elections, perhaps within a year.

Pathway 5–Edi Rama enters a deal with Lulzim Basha to bypass SMI and other small parties. This could be achieved through an electoral system where the party that comes first secures 50%+1 of parliamentary seats as long as it has received 30% of the votes nationwide.

In such scenario, voters of small parties will tend to vote for big parties, because they know that small parties would remain outside parliament and will not be able to take care of them, like they have done up until today. Basha may like such scenario, because he can promise the “New Republic” without the help of Meta, Kokedhima, Blushi, etc, but on the other hand, he may fear the fact that the SP has always been a larger party in the past decade, even when it hasn’t been able to seize power. What’s more, Berisha may not allow Basha to enter such agreement with Rama, because he may have made Meta a promise, that the latter mentioned in Corovoda two years ago.

Conclusion

It is hard to predict which pathway the events before the elections follow. However, this pathway will become clear in the days to come.

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Note: The stances expressed in the Opinion section do not necessarily represent the editorial line of Albanian Free Press

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