Early elections?

Early elections?
This article has been written for Albanian Free Press newspaper and www.afp.al

By Eduard Zaloshnja

If Albania were to hold early elections today, around 760 thousand voters would cast their ballot in favor of the majority parties (PS+PDIU+PSD). On the other hand, the same number of voters (760 thousand) would vote today in favor of the opposition parties (PD+LSI+PR+etc). Meanwhile, around 580 thousand voters would not vote at all. I managed to obtain these approximate figures during an opinion poll which I published last week.

The figures show that there is a decline of support for majority parties (PS+PDIU+PSD), which, altogether, obtained 830 thousand votes in June. Meanwhile, support for opposition parties (PD+LSI+PR+etc) has not changed almost at all. Under these circumstances, the Democratic Party (PD) and Socialist Movement for Integration Party (LSI), which are also the main parties of the opposition, are demanding the government’s resignation and the holding early elections.

Here, we can easily use the well known cliché, according to which, oppositions always demand early elections, but if an opposition is a serious opposition, it cannot address the request for early elections anytime it gets a chance, otherwise, the whole word becomes pointless. And word is the most powerful weapon of an opposition in democracy.

First of all, a serious opposition only requests early elections when opinion polls indicate that support for it has outgrown the support for the majority. The opinion poll in question shows that while support for the majority has dropped, support for the opposition has not grown, leaving both camps in a statistical draw.

What’s more, the two main opposition parties cannot be sure that the 40 thousand voters of LIBRA party and CHALLENGE party would vote these parties again, if Blushi and Bojaxhi join a coalition with Basha and Kryemadhi.

Secondly, a serious opposition demands early elections when it sees that the political situation within the majority and the geopolitical situation make the government fragile. Street protests cannot overthrow a government for as long as it has consolidated numbers in Parliament and for as long as there exists no pressure from the international community to step down.

Even if the new files sent by Italian prosecution (Catania, Lecce, Bari, etc) point to new evidence that incriminate Tahiri, Rama would not resign. In the worst scenario, we would only see Tahiri arrested, while Rama would simply justify himself by saying that “every family has a black sheep”. This argument would convince domestic public opinion (including voters of the majority) and the international community.

The same thing would also happen if a similar scandal breaks out with one of the socialist ministers or former ministers. But, if there are facts which incriminate Rama, then the latter has no other option.

But, such scenario is very hypothetical. In order for this scenario to be materialized, there must be, first of all, evidence which incriminate Rama and secondly, the international community must also address public accusations against him (accusations addressed by internal players have not yielded any results in the past quarter of a century).

To conclude, we can say that the opposition must be very careful before taking to the streets in order to demand the government’s resignation or before it sets up a new tent in the boulevard. Unless the opposition has everything on its side, including the international community, then it should continue to do what all oppositions do in a democracy–criticize the government and convince as many voters as possible that its alternative is the best for them and for the country.

Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy

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