ALB
ENG
By Eduard Zaloshnja
For every 100 voters of the majority parties (PS+PDIU+PSD), 89 of them would be determined to vote these parties if there were parliamentary elections today. On the other hand, for each 100 voters of opposition parties (PD+PR+LSI+LIBRA+etc), we would have the same number of determined voters.
These are the results of an electronic opinion poll which I conducted during the weekend with 2100 respondents nationwide. The sample was reweighted to represent the Albanian electorate as best as I could, demographically and politically. The margin of error in this opinion poll was +/-2.7%.
By combining the results of the June 25 elections with the coefficients mentioned above, I concluded that there are around 740 thousand voters who are determined today to vote for one of the majority’s parties (PS+PDIU+PSD). In other words, around 90 thousand fewer than on 25 July. On the other hand, around 750 thousand voters are determined today to vote one of the opposition parties (PD+PR+LSI9+LIBRA+etc). This is the same number of voters that voted for these parties on 25 June (see chart 1). Meanwhile, 610 thousand voters are either undecided to vote any political party or they’re determined not to vote at all (see chart 2).
The opinion poll shows that some respondents who had voted on 25 June for one of the 15 parties of the opposition, are not ready to vote for any of them today, while some others, who had not voted on 25 June, are ready to vote today for one of the opposition parties. However, in total, the opposition (PD+PR+LSI9+LIBRA+etc) has not grown compared to 25 June.
Compared to the figures of a similar opinion poll that I carried out a month ago (the results of which I have previously analyzed at Albanian Free Press http://afp.al/en/news/2017/11/early-elections-59803/), there’s a further drop in the support for the majority by 20 thousand votes; an insignificant growth of support for the opposition (by 10 thousand votes); and a one month growth of 30 thousand voters belonging to the undecided electorate.
Being an electronic opinion poll (with a very modest budget), I wasn’t able to analyze the causes for the fluctuations above (If I may use a medical metaphor, this opinion poll aims at identifying problems relating to “patients”, but not to find the causes of these problems). To identify the causes for these electoral fluctuations, there must be a broader questionnaire, which is usually used for door to door polls. This questionnaire would enable statistical comparisons of the answers given by respondents.
However, the findings of the opinion poll above are a cause for concern for both the majority and the opposition, because while 11 out of 100 people who voted the majority in June have lost faith in it (perhaps as a result of the recent scandals), the support for the parties of the opposition general has not grown either. The fact that many key figures of the opposition parties have held key positions in previous governments, may not inspire any faith among undecided voters (they amount to 610 thousand who are not ready to vote any current political parties today). This sort of electorate is either disappointed with most of the existing parties, is waiting for a new party to be created or it has lost all hopes on the Albanian political system.
So, we can say that compared to 25 June, we only have a growth of undecided voters: 520 thousand voters did not vote any parties in the June 25 elections, while today, their number is 610 thousand.
The political battle in the months and years to come will focus on attracting some of these “grey” voters, in order for them to participate in future elections. We still need to wait and see until the next elections which political camp will be able to attract more, majority or opposition.
Details on the votes for individual political parties
In contrast to an opinion poll conducted a month ago, in the current opinion poll, I also asked questions on individual parties (not only on coalitions). Through the answers obtained for these questions, I came up with chart 3 and 4 (see the charts below).
Chart 3 shows that compared to 25 June, there’s a significant shrinking (statistically and politically) for the PS and its main two allies (PDIU+PSD).
Meanwhile, chart 4 shows from a statistical point of view that there’s a growth of PD (compared to 25 June), but this growth is not very significant politically (let us not forget the fact that when PD left power, this party and its allies obtained 680 thousand votes). Among other parties, LSI has marked an insignificant change in the number of votes, while votes for other parties (PR+LIBRA+CHALLENGE+PAA+etc) have shrunk by a third of votes obtained in June (by making the growth seen by DP as part of the opposition insignificant).
Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy
