By Alfred Peza
If the Democratic Party doesn’t take advantage of the remaining hours to register at the Central Election Commission for the June 18 elections, then I shall try to lay out some of the main events that the electoral battle for the new Parliament of Albania is expected to generate.
First of all, from a three-polar one, the Albanian political area is “de facto” expected to become a single polar one. This means that based on a projection that relies on the 2013 elections, converted into seats in Parliament for 2017, we will have a new Parliament completely dominated the SP. According to political experts, Rama may win 100 to 110 seats in a Parliament of 140 seats.
Under these circumstances, not only the DP will rule out itself from the political arena, but although SMI may have a significantly higher number of seats than now, its role may be considerably reduced in future decision making. This enables the Socialist Party to carry out all the reforms that it wishes to carry out, but on the other hand, it puts this party in front of a very big political responsibility, in order not to abuse with this chance that it’s being given, otherwise, it can all come back as a boomerang.
Second of all, the fact that Ilir Meta has now been elected as President of the country, offers the Socialist Movement for Integration an opportunity to use this period that the DP is outside parliament, to fulfill its old ambition of moving from the third largest party to the second largest party in the country. With this, it will not only try to fill the gap that is created in Parliament by Basha and Berisha, but also on the field. Of course, this party may have to move its political program and its philosophy from the left, to the center or even to the right wing, with the aim of reconfirming this reality in the next elections, both central and local elections.
Thirdly, after remaining for the first time in the history of pluralism outside of Parliament, the DP and other ally parties of the traditional Albanian right wing, are expected to go through a reformation process, in order to adapt to a new political reality, different to the 1990 reality, when they were established. This will also expected to bring within these parties a new leadership, different to the old one. This moment is expected to be a very critical one, particularly for the Democratic Party, given that it must politically adapt to the new conditions of the country, without Berisha as a “de facto” chairman and without the anti-communist philosophy that it used in battles against the Socialist Party and the left wing. But also, in conditions of a new capitalist society, because once it comes back to the political arena, it will certainly face another type of voters, who are in constant change, as a growing number of them were born after the collapse of the communist regime.
On the other hand, a new right wing will be shaped, comprised of a new class of capitalists and rich people, who have nothing in common with yesterday’s historical right wing, who it has relied on. Therefore, the DP must find a new path and strategy, in order to target traditional and modern right wing groups.
Fourthly, the gaps that will be left by the DP and its allies will certainly be filled. At least temporarily, because even social life is subject to the laws of physics, one of which is to preserve and transform energy. According to this law, nothing is lost; everything is transformed. In this case, the vacuum that the DP will leave will not be lost. At the moment, it is being transformed into a new environment for each party, which see an excellent opportunity to charter new political and electoral “territories” and will do everything to make them their “territories”. Even Albanian voters are pragmatists and feel the need not only to vote, but also to rely on one party or the other tomorrow to meet their own goals.
Fifthly, the main goal of the new Parliament is to implement as soon as possible the reform in the Judicial system, approved last July with the votes of 140 MPs of the current Parliament, to give way to a practice application of this reform which has been welcomed by Albanians and international community.
Sixthly, the next step which is expected to come immediately after this is the opening of EU accession talks. This would be a big leap for Albanians who have waited for 27 years, at a time when euroskepticism is at its peak. But this would be a historical moment for a poor country, which up until a few years ago was considered by Brussels an almost hopeless case, not only due to the problems with economic standards and social and economic level.
Seventhly, the Economic Intelligence Unit’s latest report was optimistic about Albania’s positive indicators of economic growth. According to this report, in the period to come this growth will be sped up, leading to a further reduction of public debt and fiscal deficit. According to this report, this will also have positive effects in the psychological aspect of the judicial reform. As a result, experts have predicted an increase of foreign investments, a boom in the sector of tourism and reduction of unemployment. This is expected to bring a new phase of social-economic standard for Albanians.
Eighthly, the June 18 elections seem to be a golden opportunity will clarify once and for all Albanian politics overall and its elite. This seems to be the perfect moment to get rid of all the parties belonging to the old elite that has dominated the post-communist period up until today. This rotation of the elites has started to happen a few years ago, in a more or less normal way, through a transition period. But this is expected to take place with the departure of the person who entered it first in a violent way, Sali Berisha. Meanwhile, more and more people who were born after 1990 have started to enter Parliament. They have a western education and have grown up in a free and open country, creating another younger political elite, which will take the fate of the country in its own hands in a few years.
This, and many others seem to be the answers that the June 18 mystery is expected to give. What’s certain is the fact that it’s not the DP and its current leadership who are expected to be the most damaged ones from this history. At the end of the day, they will get what they have been working on during the time of the tent (but also before), since February 18. The ones who will be damaged are the Albanian people who have supported and voted the current opposition. But also, all of those who were expecting to see and evaluate a new political offer, as a real alternative for the future of Albania. This is the reason why it’s very important for the current majority to read as clearly as possible the message that comes from such a delicate moment that Albanian democracy is going through.
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Note: The stances expressed in the Opinion section do not necessarily represent the editorial line of Albanian Free Press
