By Eduard Zaloshnja
When the Socialist Movement for Integration became part of the government (in 2009), it obtained 79 thousand votes nationwide. During the eight years that it was in power (once with the Democratic Party and once with the Socialist Party), it managed to improve its result from one election to another, in both local elections and parliamentary elections. So, in the 2011 local government elections, SMI obtained 110 thousand votes nationwide; in the 2013 elections it obtained 180 thousand votes and it broke an all time record in the local government elections of 2015 with 260 thousand votes.
Until the 2015 elections, this statistical progression of the Socialist Movement for Integration has had an average coefficient increase of 1,52 from one election to the other. The growth that SMI registered especially from the local government elections to the parliamentary elections, was different to the growth of other small parties, which have usually increased the number of votes received in local elections, but have reduced it again in the next general election.
Bearing in mind the statistical progression coefficient of the Socialist Movement for Integration from one election to the other, its leaders declared before the June 25 elections that this progression would continue even in these elections. According to them, after the 260 thousand votes that SMI managed to obtain in the 2015 elections, this party was expected to obtain 400 thousand votes or more.
But on June 25, this statistical progression didn’t continue; SMI obtained only 225 thousand votes, 35 thousand less than two years ago.
And the reason is clear. Finding itself in front of two big fires, the Socialist Party and the Democratic Party, SMI not only couldn’t increase its number of votes, but it saw losses. Its officials in the central and local administration were immediately removed after the agreement reached between Rama and Basha, while these two leaders told voters that they should not hope for a joint government of their party with SMI.
Now that it’s in opposition after being eight years in power, the Socialist Movement for Integration is facing a much bigger challenge. In the next local government elections, it will not be able to win the municipalities that it won in 2015 with the help of the Socialist Party on its own. Alone, it could only win in Skrapar, while in other municipalities it could only win if it joins the Democratic Party in an opposition coalition.
But, if the Democratic Party sticks to the agreement with the Socialist Party to leave the political arena in the country with two main poles, SMI will encounter many difficulties in the 2019 local government elections. After these elections, this party will no longer have its people in the central and local government.
A fall in the number of supporters below the 225 thousand voters (which SMI obtained on 25 June), would send out a message to the public that its curb is a falling curb and this could bring SMI back to the 2009 figures.
In other words, four years in opposition will be a real test for SMI. It must prove that it is a party that doesn’t only grow when it’s in power, but also when it’s in opposition. Otherwise…
Note: The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Albanian Free Press’ editorial policy.
